NFL picks against the spread Week 11

Last week was absolutely brutal for bettors. I’m talking Ramsay Bolton being eaten alive by vicious dogs in Game of Thrones brutal. Favorites went just 3-9 against the spread in Week 10 with underdogs winning eight games straight up. 

It was a very solid day. One of the best…

Jay Kornegay, Westgate SuperBook VP via Spotsline

Well, you know what, Eff that guy! Us gamblers want to win our money back (which is the exact mentality that allows Vegas to win so often, but let’s set that little fact aside for now, okay?). So here are a few bets in Week 11 that we’re confident about.

(Home team in CAPS)

New Orleans (+3.5) over CAROLINA

Since the start of the 2015 season, the Saints are 9-4 against the spread after a loss, the third best mark in the league in that timeframe. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 0-3 in division games this season and 3-6 ATS in NFC South battles since the start of 2015. That 3-6 record, by the way, is the worst divisional mark against the spread for any NFC team. Just like an aging porn star, the Panthers are past their prime; it’s not 2015 anymore. New Orleans was one fluke play away from beating the Denver Broncos last week. They are the better overall team – despite not having Terron Armstead this week – and they’re getting points.

Plus, someone made a diss track aimed at Cam Newton. How are you going to bet against that?!

DETROIT (-6.5) over Jacksonville

Betting against Blake Bortles is like picking up a girl by showing her your gym selfies, it always works (what? They don’t like that? That explains a lot…). But in all seriousness, the Jags are just 2-12 ATS against NFC teams since 2013. Bortles just threw his ninth pick six last week and the Lions are coming off a bye at home.

I understand that the strengths-weaknesses of this game don’t exactly match up. The Jags have been solid against the pass but absolutely gashed on the ground since losing Roy Miller and Detroit isn’t exactly known for its rushing attack. But top Lions cornerback Darius Slay is due back in the lineup this week which is a real equalizer. Also, despite not having a pulse, Jim Caldwell is 5-1 ATS coming off a bye. The time is now for Detroit to jump ahead in the NFC North.

KANSAS CITY (ML) over Tampa Bay

Money lines for favorites are always going to be unattractive from an odds standpoint, but it’s probably the smartest bet for this game. The Chiefs are one of the most consistent winners in the NFL, going 18-2 straight up over their last 20 regular-season games (but if you bet on Alex Smith in a playoff game, you’re more idiotic than a third-party voter). However, KC is just 4-4-1 ATS this year. Adding to my apprehension about the spread is the fact that Tampa Bay ain’t so bad this year. They’re 3-1 straight up and ATS on the road this season and haven’t lost to KC since 1993. The money line is the safest play here.

NEW YORK Giants (-7) over Chicago 

The Bears are 0-5 straight up on the road this season and 0-5 ATS. The locker room has quit on Jay Cutler and the Bears will be without Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long. I don’t want to say this is a lock because there’s no such thing in the NFL, but OH MY GOD BET THE HOUSE ON THE G-MEN.

Oakland (-5) over Houston

This game is being played in Mexico City at an elevation of 7,382 feet (Mile High Stadium in Denver sits at 5,280 feet). Wonky things are bound to happen in this one, but Oakland has been good to me this season. The Raiders are 6-3 ATS overall this year, fourth-best mark in the league. Houston has a rock solid defense, but give me Derek Carr over Brock Osweiler any day.