Smart Money: 5 College Football Picks For This Weekend

College football betting is fun for the same reason that it’s infuriating – because it’s wild, and the season kicked up a notch last week with some crazy results.

Iowa State upset Baker Mayfield’s Oklahoma, MSU downed Michigan for the eighth time in ten years despite being ten-point underdogs, and Western Michigan and Buffalo hit the over in style as they battled it out through seven overtimes.

As we reach the midway point in the season, here are five picks for this week that will either make you money or make you send me abusive tweets.

Banker of the Week: Auburn -6.5 at LSU

LSU’s loss to Troy now looks even worse after Troy lost to South Alabama on Wednesday night. LSU’s win in the swamp last week came courtesy of a missed extra point and they are 1-5 against the spread this season. On the other side, Auburn has covered the spread in three straight games. LSU will not be able to block the visitors and if they couldn’t stop Troy’s run game, they aren’t going to stop Auburn’s.

Prediction: Auburn 28 – 17 LSU

Hunch of the Week: Baylor +26.5 at Oklahoma State

Quite simply, that is just a lot of points for Oklahoma State to lay. Baylor are currently 0-5, but they have improved over the last few games. The Bears are 2-3 against the spread despite their winless record. Oklahoma State have given up at least three touchdowns to every team they’ve played except South Alabama. The Cowboys will win, but not by four touchdowns.

Prediction: Baylor 24-41 Oklahoma State

Under of the Week: Florida State at Duke (Under 44 points)

Florida State has gone under in all four of their games this season, and they’re missing several key offensive players. Duke has seen the under land in four of their six games so far and are without starting left tackle Gabe Brandner, who has been the starter there for three seasons.

Prediction: Florida State 21-13 Duke

Over of the Week: UNLV at Air Force (Over 64.5 points)

Air Force and UNLV are two teams that are usually a safe bet for the over, so this is as sure a thing as a bet can be. Since 2015, both of these teams are in the top five in the NCAA for landing the over (UNLV 69%, Air Force 68.8%). Air Force’s last three games have averaged 80 points per game. UNLV’s two away games this season have seen 60 and 75 points, the latter in a visit to Ohio State.

Prediction: UNLV 31-41 Air Force

Upset Alert: Michigan State at Minnesota +4.5

Since 2013, Minnesota are 17-7 against the spread as an underdog, and 6-2 as a home underdog. MSU are 6-7 against the spread as an away favourite in that time period, but 0-6 since 2015. Granted Michigan’s defence is a different animal, but the Spartans went nearly the entire second half without a first down last week despite forcing five Michigan turnovers. After that exhausting win in the Big House, it will be tough for MSU to get pumped up for this one in the same way.

Prediction: MSU 17-20 Minnesota